Trade tensions may stifle expatriate employment in Saudi Arabia

A global economic downturn is likely to result in fewer jobs for expatriates in Saudi Arabia, a local bank has said. 

Instead, policies aimed at incentivising the hiring of more nationals are increasingly putting Saudis in pole position for jobs, according to Jadwa Investment, an advisory group and investment bank in Riyadh.

Last year, expatriate jobs in Saudi Arabia grew by 1.4 million, Jadwa said, but “we would not expect expatriate employment to increase to the same degree as last year”. Meanwhile, unemployment among Saudis dropped to 7 percent at the end of 2024, Jadwa said, citing the General Authority for Statistics.

In February, employment numbers in Saudi Arabia increased at the quickest rate in 16 months.

The manufacturing and services sector in particular experienced significant growth, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index, an indicator of conditions in the non-oil economy.

New hiring in the first quarter of 2025 is likely to continue into the rest of the year but most new jobs will go to Saudi nationals, Jadwa said: “Over the medium term, we anticipate more job opportunities for Saudis across multiple sectors due to growth in those sectors and gradually higher penetration of local employment.”

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Saudi Arabia is pursuing a drive to get more of its citizens into well-paying jobs. 

“We can see more willingness by the private sector to hire Saudis with government encouragement… the general policy now is that Saudis have priority,” said Ihsan Buhlaiga, a former member of the kingdom’s shura council.

Jadwa also said it expected the strong Saudi sovereign balance sheet, ongoing investment spending, sectoral developments and structural reforms to cushion the performance of the non-oil economy.