The elephant in the FII Plenary Hall: the US election

Only Citadel's CEO Ken Griffin felt brave enough to offer an opinion on the outcome

October 29, 2024, 8:58 PM

For all the talk of the broadening geography of the Future Investment Initiative – with more FII attendees coming from Asia, Africa and Latin America than ever before – the opening day of Riyadh’s flagship event turned into something of a love-in between Saudi Arabia and the US.

I’m not talking about the phantasmagorical opening ceremony, which really owed nothing to any particular geography, nor even any particular planet of the solar system.

Robotic avatars floating above the crowd in the Plenary Hall of the King Abdullah International Conference Centre, performing intricate surgery on apparently human organs, to give way to the Full Circle Opera of Soweto in a duet rendition of Nessun Dorma. Surreal, even by FII standards.

It was more the composition and content of the first two big sessions – the two “boards of changemakers” that set the overall tone of FII and deliver an FII consensus early on the first morning.

American executives, or representatives of big US corporations, dominated the two events. The upper echelons of US finance were well represented by the heads of some of the biggest “blue blood” Wall Street banks.

The message from these leaders of USA Inc was upbeat and consistent.

Never mind the fractious presidential election campaign, nor US embroilment in a forest-fire of global conflict raging round the world: the American economy is strong, and business is good and looking to get better whoever wins the vote next week.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, said: “We are in a recovery period and my expectation is you will see more robust capital markets activity in 2025 and 2026,” and that though there might be “embedded inflation” in the US economy there was no reason it should derail the coming boom.

Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi, agreed with the cheerful scenario for both the US and Saudi Arabia, which was also judged to be on a recovery road after a mini-recession last year.

“A lot of the roads do lead to the US at the moment. While you wouldn’t bet against a Saudi entrepreneur, you certainly never bet against an American one,” she said.

Elon Musk FII — Elon Musk’s appearance in the Plenary Hall was met with an intake of breath by the eager audience

The elephant in the room, of course, was the Harris versus Trump contest reaching a climax next week. On a panel of the brightest and best of Wall Street, only Ken Griffin, CEO of multi-billion hedge fund Citadel, felt brave enough to offer an opinion on the outcome of the election.

Griffin expected Trump to win, though the outcome remains close, and this mirrored the general sentiment from the Plenary Hall.

Much of the financial panel talk focused on the need to roll back regulatory frameworks and central bank oversight – essentially the Trump financial agenda.

Although Saudi Arabia would never use an investment conference to make its preferences known in something as important as a close-run US election, there is no doubt that the consensus emanating from the FII was that they expected a re-elected Trump to be good for the Saudi-US transactional relationship.

The conviction was confirmed when Elon Musk, perhaps Trump’s most committed supporter over the past few months, made a surprise appearance towards the end of day one.

The whispers had grown in volume in the course of the day that he was the big “surprise” the FII likes to pull from time to time, and that he would be in Riyadh in person.

That was not to be. Instead the words “Welcome Elon Musk” were accompanied by a spectral face on a giant screen, and a sharp intake of breath in the Plenary Hall. There was no mistaking the admiration, even awe, in which he is held in Riyadh.

The interviewer asked what was keeping the tech billionaire busy these days – was it the Cybertaxi, the Humanoid robots, the incredible SpaceX feats?

“I’ve also been playing a significant role in this election,” he replied, to loud applause and laughter.

Musk actually stayed off the subject of the election for most of his 20-minute interview, but couldn’t resist it towards the end.

Asked when humans would stand on the surface of Mars, he replied “by the end of the decade. But I’d be more optimistic under Trump. The biggest obstacle to progress is bureaucracy and that’s been growing every year, especially under Biden.”

That was what the Riyadh crowd wanted to hear. The Saudi-US relationship remains strong – and can only get stronger, depending on the election result next week.

Frank Kane is Editor-at-Large of AGBI and an award-winning business journalist. He acts as a consultant to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia and is a media adviser to First Abu Dhabi Bank of the UAE