Oil & Gas

Opec maintains forecast for oil demand growth in 2025

By Dania Saadi

June 16, 2025, 7:03 PM

Haitham Al Ghais, Opec secretary general, at the Energy Asia conference. He said on June 13 that social media posts from the International Energy Agency projected 'a sense of market fear' — Haitham Al Ghais, Opec secretary general, at the Energy Asia conference. He said on June 13 that social media posts from the International Energy Agency raised 'false alarms'

Opec predicts growth of 1.3m bpd
No mention of conflict in June report
IEA takes a contrasting view

Opec has maintained its 2025 forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day despite Israel’s targeting of oil and gas facilities in Iran.

The oil producer’s group did not refer to the hostilities in its June monthly report, which was released on Monday. Oil prices surged early on Monday after Israel’s strikes over the weekend, which hit Iranian oil and gas facilities that mainly serve the domestic market.

The forecast, which is unchanged from last month’s assessment, contrasts with the outlook from the International Energy Agency, which is projecting growth in global oil demand of 740,000 barrels per day for 2025.

Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais admonished Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, for saying on June 13 that the Paris-based agency was ready to release stocks in case of supply disruption caused by the Israel-Iran war.

“Today’s statement in social media by the IEA executive director regarding current market conditions, and potential use of oil emergency stocks, raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear through repeating the unnecessary need to potentially use oil emergency stocks,” Al Ghais said in a comment posted on Opec’s X account.

“It is crucial that commentary on market conditions be grounded in verified data and sound analysis, especially during sensitive geopolitical situations.”

Birol had earlier posted that the IEA has more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil inventory that “proved vital to safeguarding the world economy” and was “ready to act if needed”.

Al Ghais added that “there are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics that warrant unnecessary measures”.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE together hold Opec’s biggest spare oil capacity, which could be unleashed if production in Iran is disrupted by Israeli attacks, analysts have said.

The two Gulf states are also among eight members of the Opec+ coalition that are currently unwinding 1.37 million out of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts. This process started in April and was accelerated in May, June and July. The members are set to meet on July 6 to decide on August quota levels.

Iran, Opec’s third largest member, has no production ceiling and pumped 3.3 million barrels per day in May, according to secondary sources quoted in the June report.

Opec also kept its forecast for non-Opec+ oil liquids supply growth unchanged at 800,000 barrels per day.

Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, emphasised the importance of the global oil and gas industry in a speech on Monday, without directly referring to the war, according to a Reuters report.

History has “shown us that when conflicts occur, the importance of oil and gas can’t be understated”, Nasser told the Energy Asia Conference in Kuala Lumpur, speaking via video-link.