Mena’s LNG output ‘to rise by two-thirds by 2030’

• Increase of 90m tonnes forecast
• Bulk of output comes from Qatar
• North Field nears completion

Multibillion-dollar projects under construction are expected to raise Arab countries’ liquefied natural gas output by almost 90 million tonnes per year by 2030.

The Arab Energy Organisation – previously the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries – said in a report published last month that most of the increase would come from Qatar.

Mena LNG suppliers produce nearly 138.5 million tonnes per year at present, according to the energy organisation. Projects under construction are forecast to push up this figure to 197 million in 2027 and about 228 million in 2030.

Qatar, which controls the world’s third largest proven gas deposits after Russia and Iran, will lift its export capacity by 85 percent to nearly 142 million tonnes per year in 2030, mainly from the offshore North Field.

The first of the North Field’s production trains are expected to come on stream in 2025 or 2026. The report said 48 million tonnes per year were likely to come online by 2028 and an additional 16 million by 2030.

The Arab Energy Organisation also pointed out that Qatar has the lowest LNG production costs in the world. As a result, government receipts are forecast to rise by nearly 33 percent from 2025 to 2026, according to James Swanston at Capital Economics.

“The hope will be that as the North Field comes online, it paves the way for investments elsewhere in the private sector to promote activity,” Swanston told AGBI last October.

Global LNG production is forecast to rise from about 474 million tonnes per year in 2024 to 666.5 million in 2028, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

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“This will be the fastest capacity growth in the global LNG industry’s brief history, representing a 40 percent increase in just five years,” the US-based institute said.

The UAE’s LNG production will rise by about 9.6 million tonnes per year when a multibillion-dollar project at Ruwais is completed in 2027.

“The Arab LNG producers are expected to play a bigger role in the European gas market in the medium and long terms, thanks to the large projects being executed in Qatar, the UAE, Oman and Mauritania,” the Arab Energy Organisation added.

According to energy analyst Walid Khadduri, Qatar could increase its output even further after 2030 but this depends on “market availability”.