Geothermal could be the Gulf’s energy solution 

In Dubai, the sixth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park is due to increase its production capacity in the hydrocarbon-poor emirate to over 4,500MW – roughly three big conventional power plants.

In Abu Dhabi, the 2,000MW – 2GW – Dhafra plant is among the largest single-site solar PV power installations in the world. Developers say the plant can generate enough electricity to power almost 200,000 homes and displace more than 2 million tonnes of carbon a year.

True, the UAE is expanding its oil and gas production capacity but, contrary to its international image, the country has also delivered a surge in renewables. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), the UAE increased capacity from just 133MW in 2014 to more than 6GW last year. It shows what can be done.

Nearby Saudi Arabia has around 5GW in renewable capacity, according to GlobalData, an analytics company. At present rates of development this is set to increase to over 31GW, GlobalData said in a report earlier this year. For comparison, the UK has total installed capacity of about 75GW.

Wind and solar – and, if you have them, hydropower and biomass – are the favoured means of reaching ambitious targets. Dubai, for one, plans to cut carbon emissions by 50 percent by 2030.

But there is another option: geothermal. The virtues of geothermal are well-known. Crucially it is not just carbon free; unlike solar and wind, it also provides energy pretty much around the clock.

In a new report, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rich countries’ watchdog, says that, worldwide, geothermal achieves 75 percent utilisation compared with 30 percent for wind and a measly 15 for solar. The unreliability of solar and wind of course means additional conventional power stations are needed as back-up.

Geothermal schemes have typically been held back by long lead times, high up-front costs and consequent difficulty in accessing capital. Installed geothermal capacity around the world was just 15GW in 2023, according to the IEA.

That may be about to change, the agency suggests. Advanced geothermal drilling techniques, akin to the technologies that have extended the lives of many oil and gas fields and contributed to the fracking revolution that has made the US the world’s leading oil producer, are bringing down costs.

Engineers need high temperatures and accessibility to the right kind of rock for geothermal to work. Iceland and the west coast of the United States famously have those attributes – the clue is in the geysers – but so too does the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia.

Earlier this year, my colleague Eva Levesque looked at the potential of geothermal in the kingdom. Scientists from King Abdullah University for Science and Technology in alliance with Taqa, backed by the Public Investment Fund, have drilled a test well on the Red Sea coast.

Taqa and Reykjavik Geothermal, an Icelandic developer, have also signed a joint venture agreement to establish Taqa Geothermal Energy in Riyadh.

Geothermal energy reservoirs in the kingdom are thought to include the Al-Harrat volcanic field, north of Medina, and other areas north of Hail city and east of Najd plateau.

Elsewhere in the region, Turkey, which has little oil or gas, has been the standout geothermal proposition. Iran – no slouch, with more than 12GW of installed renewable capacity – also has potential in the Meshkinshahr geothermal field near Tabriz in the northwest.

Oman has also started to assess its geothermal resources.

The enhanced techniques the EIA says are enabling the long-promised arrival of geothermal as a serious adjunct to solar and wind include drilling down to depths of 4,000m – but may utilise existing or aged oil and gas wells to do so. The Middle East has plenty of those.

There is an element of appealing to the incoming incumbent of the White House and his famously sceptical team about the IEA report – as there is this excellent Odd Lots podcast – but it may be that geothermal is coming of age.