Narrow-body aircraft to push growth of Middle East fleets

• Fleet growth double global average
• Increase in regional travel
• Smaller planes fit low-cost model

Gulf Arab airlines and other Middle East carriers will expand their fleets at almost double the rate of the global average over the next ten years, industry experts say.

They will also increase the share of narrow-body planes over twin-aisle aircraft.

Globally, fleet size is expected grow by 2.8 percent per year over the next decade. In the Middle East it is likely be nearer 5.1 percent, reaching a total of 2,600 aircraft by 2035, according to international business strategy consultants Oliver Wyman.

The fleets of Middle East carriers such as Dubai’s Emirates, Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways are dominated by wide-body, twin-aisle planes. Those of Flydubai, Sharjah’s Air Arabia and Kuwait Jazeera Airways consist of single-aisle, narrow-body jets.

Narrow-body planes typically seat between 100 and 200 passengers, and fly short- to medium-haul routes. Their share of Middle East fleets will grow from 43 percent now to 47 percent by 2035, according to Oliver Wyman, due to increased range, airlines adding secondary cities to networks and growing demand for air travel.

The Middle East share of global fleets will increase to 6.7 percent over the ten-year period from 5.3 percent now.

“While long-haul connectivity remains a core strength for many Gulf carriers, regional and domestic air travel is seeing significant structural growth,” Linus Bauer, managing director of Singapore-based aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, told AGBI.

All this is good news for Airbus and Boeing, and their offering around single-aisle planes.

New variants such as the Airbus A321XLR and the Boeing 737 Max offer greater fuel efficiency and operational flexibility, particularly on medium-haul routes that were once dominated by larger wide-body aircraft capable of carrying 300 passengers or more. 

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The growth of the low-cost airline business model has also tended to favour single-aisle planes.

Yet there are still challenges as the two biggest plane makers, especially Boeing, struggle with production delays. 

Airbus is grappling with certification issues around its A321XLR, while Boeing continues to deal with quality-control concerns, especially with its 737 Max.

Pilot shortages are another challenge. Oliver Wyman previously reported that the global aviation industry will be short of 80,000 pilots by 2032, with the Middle East accounting for almost a quarter of this.

“Narrow bodies take a heavier flight deck requirement and with a lot of retirements of that labour pool expected in the next 10 years, getting experienced pilots is challenging and increasingly expensive,” said John Grant, partner at Midas Aviation and an AGBI columnist.