Aviation

Airbus expects Middle East aircraft fleet to double by 2043

February 11, 2025, 12:22 PM

Emirates Airline A380s being assembled at the Airbus factory in Toulouse, France

Regional demand 3,740 aircraft
Saudi fleet to lead Gulf growth
Sector must fill 225,000 jobs

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus expects fleet size in the Middle East to more than double in the 18-year period to 2043, the world’s third-fastest rate after China and the Asia-Pacific region.

In its latest Global Market and Services Forecast, Airbus said Middle East demand, led by airlines in the Gulf, is estimated at 3,740 new aircraft over the 18-year period, split between 2,160 single-aisle and 1,580 wide-body aircraft.

“Saudi Arabia is a country that’s experiencing enormous growth at the moment,” Grainne van den Berg, Airbus head of airline marketing for Africa and the Middle East, told AGBI.

“They have a strong Vision 2030 and beyond, so if they are delivering on that vision, it will be one of the highest growing countries [for planes] in the region.”

Passenger traffic in the Middle East is projected to grow by more than 9 percent by 2027 as the industry recovers from the 2020-22 covid pandemic, van den Berg said.

Over the 18-year period, annual passenger growth will be closer to 4 percent per year, above the global average of 3.6 percent, she said. Fleet size may grow by 150 percent to almost 3,500 aircraft, from 1,370 in 2023,

The Middle East has become a strategic centre for global aviation, supported by strong international demand, investments in infrastructure and the growing presence of low-cost carriers.

Favourable geography at the centre of three continents, open skies agreements, demographic growth and bold tourism ambitions have spurred growth.

However, delays in new aircraft deliveries and limited engine availability are creating bottlenecks, and holding back the ambitious growth targets for 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association.

It is taking time for the industry to recover from Covid, and the supply chain has been challenging, “but we’re talking about long-term vision over the next 20 years,” Van den Berg said.

There is also a critical need for increased investment in workforce development to sustain the growth in the Middle East aviation sector, according to the Airbus report.

Over the next two decades the Middle East will need more than 225,000 people to join the sector, including 55,000 pilots, 30,000 technicians and 121,000 cabin crew, the report said.

The aviation services market is also poised for expansion, with projected growth of at least 5 percent a year over the 18-year period, from $14 billion last year to $32 billion in 2043.