Turkey can turn crisis into catalyst for global trade power

Turkey’s domestic economy is straining under the weight of double-digit inflation, a volatile currency and waning consumer spending. These headwinds are battering businesses across nearly every sector.

With local demand weakening and growth prospects uncertain, Turkish companies are increasingly casting their sights abroad in search of sustainable expansion and diversified revenue streams.

Fortunately for Turkey, shifting global trade patterns – spurred by renewed US protectionism and a realignment of Middle Eastern geopolitics after President Donald Trump’s recent Gulf tour – may offer a timely opening.

For many companies, international markets could prove to be the vital lifeline needed to weather the storm at home.

Location, location, location

Turkey’s most immediate opportunity lies in positioning itself as a strategic trade intermediary.

As Trump’s renewed tariff wars with China and the EU upend global supply chains, companies are urgently seeking alternative routes and processing hubs – and Turkey is well placed to step into that void.

Its position along the Middle Corridor – a trans-Caspian trade route linking Asia and Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus – makes it a natural conduit for goods seeking to bypass geopolitically fraught waters.

Fast-tracking port expansions can help transform it into a next-gen logistics hub

Using its customs union with the EU, Turkish manufacturers and logistics players should court firms looking to relocate production or establish transhipment hubs to shield goods from tariff fallout.

Already benefiting from Trump’s lowest-tier 10 percent ‘reciprocal tariffs’, Turkey can brand itself as a stable, neutral alternative – nurturing ties with all major economic blocs while skirting direct trade conflicts. Fast-tracking port expansions and digitising customs can help transform it into a next-gen logistics hub.

Deeper collaboration with GCC sovereign investors and logistics giants can further support this ambition.

The Syrian bonanza

The lifting of US sanctions on Syria, as announced by Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia, presents an even more transformative opportunity.

Turkey’s early involvement in Syrian reconstruction could establish it as the dominant economic power in the country post-conflict, potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming decades.

Turkish construction companies are well-positioned to lead major infrastructure projects. Additionally, local banks can become primary facilitators of Syrian economic recovery, exploiting the widespread adoption of the Turkish Lira in large parts of Syria and establishing long-term relationships that extend beyond immediate reconstruction needs.

However, capitalising on Syrian opportunities requires delicate diplomatic manoeuvring. Turkey must balance historical competition for influence with Saudi Arabia against pragmatic economic cooperation needs.

Turkey would do well to focus on projects that serve humanitarian purposes and promote regional stability while building economic ties that transcend political differences.

The industry trifecta

Turkish companies should prioritise sectors such as energy infrastructure, manufacturing and transport, which create beneficial relationships.

The energy sector represents another crucial arena where Turkey can turn current disruptions to its advantage. Trump’s energy policies and realignments in the Middle East are reshaping global energy flows.

Turkey should accelerate its transformation into an energy hub, not just for Russian and Central Asian gas flowing to Europe, but as a processing and distribution centre for Middle Eastern energy resources.

The country’s growing renewable energy capacity positions it to become a green energy exporter to Europe, potentially capturing market share as European countries diversify suppliers.

Manufacturing presents equally lucrative opportunities. As Trump’s tariffs make Chinese goods more expensive in American markets, Turkish manufacturers in textiles, automotive parts and electronics can capture market share by offering competitive alternatives.

The government should provide targeted support for exporters, including financing assistance, trade promotion and regulatory streamlining. Special economic zones focused on export manufacturing could attract foreign investment while boosting domestic production capabilities.

Capitalising on Middle East realignment

Success requires abandoning traditional approaches for bold, coordinated action. The government must move beyond bureaucratic inertia to implement rapid policy changes supporting opportunistic businesses.

This means streamlining regulations, providing targeted incentives and investing in infrastructure to enhance Turkey’s competitive advantages.

The GCC’s wealth of financing options and thirst for strategic assets present an opportunity for collaboration that could transcend previous oppositions.

The window for capitalising on this reshuffling of the geo-economic cards may be brief. Other countries are also analysing these opportunities and global supply chains will eventually stabilise around new patterns.

Turkey’s success depends on moving faster and more decisively than its competitors while building lasting advantages that will survive future geopolitical shifts.

The convergence of Trump’s trade disruptions, the Middle East’s geoeconomic realignment and Syria’s reconstruction represent a rare conjunction of factors that could fundamentally enhance Turkey’s global economic position.

The question is not whether opportunities exist but whether Turkish leadership possesses the vision and execution capability to seize them decisively.

Nicolas Michelon is managing partner at Alagan Partners, a corporate geoeconomics and market access consultancy in Dubai