Opinion
Trade

Trump’s Gulf visit was grand – but the real test starts now

Pledges and deals may change when reality hits

May 16, 2025, 2:38 PM

US President Donald Trump holds a guestbook as he visits the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi during the final stop of his Gulf visit

Donald Trump’s trip to the Gulf has been notable for its economic fireworks and political theatre. However, its long term impact will only emerge once Airforce One has landed back home and the cut and thrust of domestic US politics has resumed.

Fighter jet escorts and endless receiving lines on red – or lavender – carpets signalled a lavish welcome for the American president to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

The visits to those countries were laden with pomp and circumstance – precisely the kind of regal treatment Trump would have expected and, no doubt, enjoyed.

At times, the four-day trip could be likened to an episode of the game show Wheel of Fortune – only with a lot more zeros. Trump announced deals allegedly worth trillions of dollars. And, in a moment of historical significance, the president hosted a surprise meeting with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Taken at face value, the trip was a resounding success. However, while some signals rang loud and clear, there is still plenty of noise to analyse over the coming weeks and months.

Let’s begin with the obvious. The visit formally cemented the Gulf’s heightened role in global economic and geostrategic affairs, particularly since Trump returned to the White House for his second term in January.

Even more so than his first term regional tour in 2017, this week marked a recognition of the unparalleled financial dry powder and diplomatic heft the three host nations can – and want to – deploy.

The grand financial sums bandied around on this trip stand in contrast to the wider global backdrop, where many wealthy countries are battling tight public finances and political gridlock.

The presidential tour and ensuing deals also underscored the pivotal role of American technology in powering today’s global economy – and the hefty sums Gulf nations are prepared to spend for greater access to coveted Nvidia chips.

Some of the largest and most dependable new partnerships were signed in more traditional domains like energy and defence. The UAE and the US announced plans to spend $440 billion in the energy sector over the next decade.

But any announcement on new trade agreements amid the Trump-fuelled tariff war was notably absent. All six GCC states remain subject to a 10 percent universal rate on exports to the US.

For an indication of where the president’s heart lies, one can point to his positive remarks about Qatar maintaining a trade deficit against the US and how that “swings” in Doha’s favour.

Regardless, exchanges of goods between the US and the GCC are not that significant given the relative size of the regional economies.

From this standpoint, it is safe to say that Trump’s visit has strengthened bilateral economic, trade and investment ties at the symbolic level. Yet much depends on the implementation of each deal signed this week.

In the meantime, some clouds loom.

For one, the US still has an executive bureaucracy and a legislative branch in Congress – though one could be excused for forgetting that these days.

This means Trump’s promised loosening of export controls to allow for more chip sales to the Gulf, his pledge to lift all sanctions on Syria unilaterally without preconditions and the massive defence deals he touted still have to navigate some significant obstacles. As that happens, these pledges may change modestly or significantly.

They will also contend with the opposition of national security hawks in Washington worried that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may provide a backdoor for China’s access to American AI or that Syria still poses terrorism risks.

Democrats in Congress may separately object to tens of billions of dollars worth of arms sales to the Gulf over human rights and other issues.

And that is before the outcry sparked in the US capital by the president’s stated intention to accept a $400 million plane as a gift from Qatar to use as his new Air Force One.

Trump, too, is notoriously unpredictable and easily distracted. Will he keep his focus on the region, for which he certainly has an affinity, long enough to make all of it happen?

The GCC states themselves face challenges in meeting their ambitious investment commitments.

New US partnerships with Qatar are expected to yield an overall “economic exchange” worth $1.2 trillion, according to a vaguely phrased fact sheet from the White House. That’s more than five times Qatar’s gross domestic product of $221 billion.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is under pressure to invest more in its Vision 2030 domestic development plan at a time of lower oil prices. While Riyadh still has plenty of cash on hand, it may not quite have the $600 billion it has promised the US, let alone the $1 trillion Trump keeps asking for.

None of this is to denigrate what has been a remarkable week on the world’s stage for the Gulf.

But as the region bids farewell for now to long-winded Trump speeches, pumped-up crowds and fancy galas, we would do well to hold on to a modicum of reality.

Valentina Pasquali is senior editor at AGBI