Goldman Sachs expects oil at $60 after Opec+ decision

Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, Opec+, to accelerate oil output increases, the bank said in a note on Sunday.

Goldman now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, down by $2 from its previous estimate.

It has also cut its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by $3 per barrel, projecting it to average $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026.

On Saturday Opec+ agreed to increase oil production for a second straight month, boosting output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) despite falling prices and weakened demand expectations.

Goldman Sachs views the Opec+ decision as a long-term equilibrium strategy aimed at maintaining internal cohesion and strategically regulating US shale supply amid relatively low inventories.

The bank now anticipates a final Opec+ production increase in July of 0.41 million bpd, up from the previous estimate of 0.14 million bpd.

This revised forecast is based on the group’s recent decision and stronger-than-expected economic activity data, suggesting that the expected demand slowdown may not yet be evident enough for Opec+ to slow the pace of production increases when determining July production levels on June 1, the bank said.

Despite the relatively tight spot fundamentals, Goldman Sachs believes that the high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rose 10 cents to $60.33 a barrel by 00:50 GMT on Tuesday, while US WTI crude added 10 cents to $57.23 a barrel.