Skip to content Skip to Search
Skip navigation

IEA and Opec move further apart on global oil demand

Oil workers in Venezuela, a founder member of Opec. The IEA predicts slower demand growth Jose Bula/Alamy via Reuters
Oil workers in Venezuela, a founder member of Opec. The IEA predicts slower demand growth
  • IEA predicts weaker demand than Opec
  • Crude prices down 8% in a month
  • Next Opec meeting in June

The division between the International Energy Agency and oil producers’ group Opec has deepened as the Paris-based energy watchdog once again curtailed its oil demand outlook for 2024, amid softer macro sentiment.

In its monthly report, the IEA forecast on Wednesday that world fuel demand will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, down 140,000 bpd from its previous outlook a month ago. The forecast reflects a first-quarter demand contraction in OECD countries, notably in Europe. 

Earlier this week Opec kept its outlook unchanged at 2.2 million bpd this year.



Poor industrial activity and another mild winter have sapped gas oil consumption this year, particularly in Europe, where a declining share of diesel cars in the fleet was already undercutting consumption,” the IEA said.

“Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction.“

The two are closer in their predictions for 2025. 

IEA’s outlook for next year remained the same at 1.2 million bpd, while Opec kept its forecast at 1.8 million bpd in 2025.

Brent prices were stable Thursday morning at $83.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $78.95 per barrel.

Crude prices have lost around 8 percent in a month, correcting sharply throughout April and early May, “as concerns over the health of the global economy and oil demand fuelled a sell-off”, added the IEA.

“Reports of progress towards a truce in Gaza also weighed on oil prices, although geopolitical tensions remain high.”

Assuming that voluntary cuts in the broader Opec+ group are maintained, the IEA expects world oil supply to increase by 580,000 bpd this year to a record 102.7 million bpd as non-Opec production rises by 1.4 million bpd, while Opec+ output falls by 840,000 bpd.

Opec+ ministers will meet on June 1 to discuss the health of oil demand and their further output policy. They may also examine global oil inventories as a gauge for balancing world crude demand and supply. 

Latest articles

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the pledge ' sets a precedent for global standards on AI safety'

UAE joins AI safety pledge at UK-South Korea summit

Two artificial intelligence companies from the UAE have signed up to a new AI safety pledge and have committed to safe development of the technology. Abu Dhabi’s Technology Innovation Institute and G42 are among 16 names on the safety pledge that also includes Amazon, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Samsung. The announcement was made […]

Turkey FAB Yapi Kredi

First Abu Dhabi Bank targets Turkish lender

One of Turkey’s largest corporations has confirmed it is in talks with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) over the sale of a majority holding in the Istanbul-headquartered lender Yapı Kredi, the country’s fourth largest private bank in terms of assets.  A report by Reuters on May 21 said sources told it FAB was offering around […]

Bruno Le Maire said France was also ready to help the UAE develop its own nuclear power plants

France ‘open’ to UAE investing in its nuclear plants

The French government is open to the UAE investing in the country’s nuclear power sector, its economy minister has said. Bruno Le Maire spoke to journalists in Abu Dhabi ahead of talks with Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE minister of industry and advanced technology, and Khaldoon Al Mubarak, chief executive of investment fund Mubadala and […]

Dhahran is home to the King Abdulaziz Center for World Culture. Retal will build almost 2,000 homes in the city

Retal wins $770m contract to build in Dhahran

The Saudi builder Retal has signed a SAR2.9 billion ($770 million) contract to design and build nearly 2,000 residential units in Dhahran, Eastern Province, for the giga-project developer Roshn.  Retal “will develop and design the detailed master plan, design and execute the infrastructure, landscape, construct 1,962 residential units and public amenities building in Aldanah project,” […]