Skip to content Skip to Search
Skip navigation

Fitch predicts strong growth for Mena oil producers in 2024

Weak global growth in 2024 could prompt further Opec+ cuts if the oil market shifts decisively into surplus, said Fitch Ratings Aramco
Weak global growth in 2024 could prompt further Opec+ cuts if the oil market shifts decisively into surplus, said Fitch Ratings

Oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region will register stronger growth in 2024, supported by the momentum in non-oil real GDP and stabilising oil production following output cuts in 2023, Fitch Ratings said.

Brent crude oil is expected to average $80 per barrel with robust oil prices likely to support the credit metrics in oil-exporting sovereigns, the ratings agency added.

Despite this, weak global growth next year could prompt further Opec+ cuts if the oil market shifts decisively into surplus. Although the latest deal at the end of November 2023 shows reluctance to bring output much lower.

On November 30, Opec+ decided to decrease oil supplies by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Saudi Arabia will reduce output by one million bpd. The UAE will lower production by 163,000 bpd, Kuwait 135,000 bpd, Oman 42,000 bpd and Iraq 211,000 bpd.

Opec+ consists of the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) bloc of 13 countries and the Russian-led non-Opec group, which has 10 participants.

In the Mena region, credit fundamentals will face challenges from high debt burdens and tight financing conditions amid high global interest rates. Domestic interest rates will also remain high, given inflation trends, Fitch said.

“The Israel-Hamas war presents risks to tourism and sentiment, at least in the near term,” the report added.

In its 2024 outlook report, the ratings agency said that high oil prices should keep reasonable levels of liquidity in most GCC banking systems next year. 

Higher interest rates, supported by high levels of low-cost deposits and muted loan impairment charges, will continue to benefit profitability, it added.

Latest articles

FILE PHOTO: United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi gestures during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Abdel Hadi Ramahi/File Photo

UAE and Kenya complete Cepa negotiations

The UAE and Kenya have completed negotiations on a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (Cepa) between the two countries. It is the 12th Cepa deal secured by the UAE and its third in Africa, after agreements were signed last year with Mauritius and the Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville). “The UAE-Kenya Cepa will not only boost […]

The 450 companies operating at Dubai Science Park include AstraZeneca, and the free zone plans to add 200,000 sq ft of lab and office space

Dubai Science Park reveals expansion plans

Dubai’s biotechnology free zone is adding 60 percent more offices, laboratories and warehouses over the next few years to cater for an influx of new companies, its senior vice-president told AGBI.  Dubai Science Park, part of Dubai-listed Tecom Group, is planning an expansion of 200,000 sq ft of additional storage and logistics facilities at the […]

A worker at a phosphate production plant in Metlaoui, Tunisia. Phosphate accounts for 15% of Tunisia's exports

Saudi Arabia loans $55m for Tunisian rail renewal

Saudi Arabia has signed a $55 million loan deal with Tunisia to finance the renewal of the North African country’s rail network.  The railway is used to transport phosphate, a sector that makes up around 4 percent of Tunisia’s GDP and 15 percent of the country’s exports. Tunisia plans to produce eight million tonnes by […]

Visitors enjoy the Karnak Temples; the government hopes to entice 30 million tourists to Egypt a year by 2030 tourism egypt

Egypt tourism up 5% in early 2024 despite Gaza conflict

The number of tourists visiting Egypt increased by five percent year on year in the first 40 days of 2024, according to Egypt’s tourism minister, Ahmed Issa. The announcement came after reports in January that visitor numbers for the whole of 2023 reached a record high of 14.9 million, just shy of the 15 million […]