Turkey’s central bank forecast to slash policy rate

Turkey’s central bank is expected to reduce its key policy rate by 150 basis points (bps) from the existing 50 percent, according to a survey by state-run Anadolu Agency.

Among the 14 economists surveyed, 10 projected a rate cut between 47.5 percent and 50 percent. The remaining four economists forecast no change.

Looking ahead, the average policy rate expectation for 2025 stands at 29.5 percent.

The monetary policy committee will hold its final rate-setting meeting of 2024 on December 26, with another meeting scheduled for January 23, 2025.

The central bank has adopted an aggressive tightening cycle since May 2023, raising the policy rate from 8.5 percent to 50 percent by March 2024.  

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Citi expects the easing cycle to begin in December with a 250-bps cut and forecasts the policy rate at 30 percent by the end of 2025, Hurriyet Daily newspaper reported.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley anticipates a more cautious approach, expecting a measured rate cut this month.

Annual inflation reached 47 percent in November 2024, with consumer prices rising 2.24 percent, higher than expected.