Economy UAE to post fiscal surpluses until 2028 despite headwinds By Pramod Kumar June 18, 2025, 1:47 PM Pexels/Marx Ilagan UAE economic growth is expected to remain strong, averaging close to 4 percent over 2025-2028, thanks to buoyant non-oil sector activity and increasing oil production The UAE is expected to maintain fiscal surpluses through 2028 despite lower oil prices and global economic headwinds, according to S&P Global. The surplus is expected to average 3.2 percent of GDP between 2025 and 2028, based on assumed Brent oil prices at $60 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel through 2028. In the midst of growing geopolitical tensions in the region, as a result of the Iran-Israel conflict, brent crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $76.68 per barrel by 03:20 GMT on Wednesday morning. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.4 percent to $75.10 per barrel. The government debt is forecast to remain stable at 28 percent of GDP over the next four years, as the federal government and emirates, such as Abu Dhabi, plan to issue local currency debt to develop domestic capital markets. S&P assigned “AA” foreign and local currency ratings to the UAE with a stable outlook. Economic growth is expected to remain strong, averaging close to 4 percent over 2025-2028, similar to the estimated levels for 2024, thanks to buoyant non-oil sector activity and increasing oil production. Oil production is projected to rise gradually as Opec+ eases output quotas. In June, Opec+ approved its third production increase in as many months, with July slated to add an extra 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). S&P expects UAE’s oil production to reach 3.5 million bpd in 2028 from just under 3 million bpd in 2024. “Over the next few years, we expect the Ghasha gas and Ruwais liquefied natural gas projects to significantly enhance Abu Dhabi’s gas production capacity,” the rating agency said. The UAE is securing alternative trade routes to the Red Sea by signing comprehensive economic partnership agreements. “We expect that the UAE’s considerable fiscal buffers will be sufficient to offset the potential financial impact of increased regional political risks,” S&P said. Talks begin on US-UAE trade pact as metal tariffs double Cepa aims to double UAE trade with Republic of the Congo Opec maintains forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 Last week the UAE posted a massive jump in non-oil exports in the first quarter of 2025, driven by economic stability and diversification efforts. Non-oil exports rose 41 percent annually to AED177.3 billion ($48.3 billion), the UAE state-run Wam news agency reported. Transport, logistics and automotive companies in the UAE reported the strongest hiring intentions globally for the third quarter of the year. In a survey of 530 UAE-based employers by recruitment company ManpowerGroup, 68 percent of UAE companies in the sector said they were planning to recruit, 41 percentage points above the global average. Register now: It’s easy and free AGBI registered members can access even more of our unique analysis and perspective on business and economics in the Middle East. Why sign uP Exclusive weekly email from our editor-in-chief Personalised weekly emails for your preferred industry sectors Read and download our insight packed white papers Access to our mobile app Prioritised access to live events Register for free Already registered? Sign in I’ll register later Register now: It’s easy and free AGBI registered members can access even more of our unique analysis and perspective on business and economics in the Middle East. Why sign uP Exclusive weekly email from our editor-in-chief Personalised weekly emails for your preferred industry sectors Read and download our insight packed white papers Access to our mobile app Prioritised access to live events Register for free Already registered? Sign in I’ll register later
