Economy Goldman Sachs raises odds of US recession risk to 45% By Reuters April 7, 2025, 11:41 AM Reuters The US investment bank raised the probably of a recession in the next 12 months following a sharp tightening in financial conditions Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 45 percent in the next 12 months. It joins other investment banks in revising their forecast as fears of a trade war grip markets after sweeping tariffs from US President Donald Trump. Goldman raised the probably of a recession in the next 12 months from a previous estimate of 35 percent. The decision followed a sharp tightening in financial conditions and a rise in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than what Goldman had previously assumed. Middle East fails to escape Trump’s tariffs Safe-haven gold hits record peak after Trump’s tariffs Gulf stocks slide as investors fret over US tariffs Several investment banks raised their recession risk forecasts last week, with JP Morgan putting the odds of a US and global recession at 60 percent. Goldman had raised the probability of a US recession to 35 percent from 20 percent just last month, noting economic fundamentals were not as strong as in the previous years. Register now: It’s easy and free AGBI registered members can access even more of our unique analysis and perspective on business and economics in the Middle East. Why sign uP Exclusive weekly email from our editor-in-chief Personalised weekly emails for your preferred industry sectors Read and download our insight packed white papers Access to our mobile app Prioritised access to live events Register for free Already registered? Sign in I’ll register later
