IMF cuts Saudi GDP growth prediction

Saad Alkot/Pexels

• Forecast for 2024 lowered to 2.6%
• Prediction for 2025 is 6% rise
• Inflation predicted to be 2.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its estimate for Saudi economic growth in 2024 to 2.6 percent in its most recent World Economic Outlook, but raised its expectation for 2025. 

The IMF’s April report says it’s GDP estimate is down from the 2.7 percent in predicted in January.

However, the it said that Saudi Arabia’s GDP in 2025 would rise by 6 percent, instead of the 5.5 percent forecast earlier. 

Inflation was predicted as averaging 2.3 percent over the year, falling to 2 percent in 2025, which is higher than in recent months. 

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In October last year the IMF was forecasting 4 percent economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2024.

But an attempt to push up global oil prices via prolonged output cuts – both mandated by Opec+ and voluntary – caused an economic contraction in 2023 of 0.8 percent. 

• Riyadh revises GDP but pins hopes on non-oil activity

• IMF predicts 2025 rebound for Saudi GDP

• Volatility of crude markets masks Saudi non-oil momentum

The IMF praised the non-oil economy as “robust” in its January report but made no comment on the revised figures in its April paper. The government said the non-oil economy accounted for 50 percent of GDP in 2023 for the first time. 

The Gaza conflict has helped push oil prices to around $90 a barrel, above Saudi Arabia’s break-even price of around $86, and Opec is predicting growth in demand over the summer.