Passenger profit is three times global average at Middle East airlines

• $27.20 per passenger
• Global average only $7.20
• Aircraft delays a constraint

Middle East airlines are set to generate $27.20 in profit per passenger this year, more than three times the global average, as the region continues to lead the global aviation industry on profitability, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total net income for Middle Eastern carriers is forecast to exceed $6.2 billion in 2025, up from $6.1 billion a year earlier and higher than IATA’s previous estimate of $5.9 billion released in December. The per-passenger projection marks a notable increase from the $23.90 forecast earlier this year, though it remains just below 2024’s level of $28.50.

“Robust economic performance is supporting strong air travel demand, both for business and leisure travel,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said on Monday at the association’s annual general meeting in New Delhi.

Globally, airlines are projected to post combined net profits of $36 billion in 2025, equal to $7.20 per passenger. While profitability is improving, Walsh cautioned that the industry’s margins remain vulnerable to external shocks.

“It’s still a thin buffer. Any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charges, demand shock, or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test,” he said.

Dubai’s Emirates said it has not yet seen any shift in passenger demand patterns as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, Tim Clark, the airline’s president, said in New Delhi.

However, Walsh flagged headwinds for Middle Eastern carriers, including widespread aircraft delivery delays and large-scale retrofit programmes that could constrain growth.

“The region will see limitations in capacity as airlines embark on retrofit projects to modernise their fleet,” he said.

Global aircraft backlogs now exceed 17,000 units, up from 10,000 to 11,000 before the Covid-19 pandemic, translating to an implied wait time of 14 years, according to IATA.

Emirates is investing $5 billion to retrofit 219 aircraft as it manages delays in new deliveries. Clark said Boeing has indicated Emirates may receive its first 777X wide-body jet between the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.

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Tensions over manufacturing timelines also surfaced elsewhere. Steven Greenway, chief executive of Saudi low-cost carrier Flyadeal, described the Airbus delays as “inexcusable”, citing growing frustration among regional operators.

Passenger traffic globally reached a record 5 billion in 2024, driving total airline revenues to $979 billion. Jet fuel prices, one of the industry’s largest cost drivers, have declined 13 percent year on year and now sit 1 percent below previous IATA forecasts.

“We anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024,” Walsh said, though he noted that rising trade tensions and softer consumer sentiment could weigh on demand in some markets.