Expect commercial jet shortages until 2030, warns Flyadeal CEO

• Expecting only 5 of 8 jets by 2025
• Supply chains will be ‘traumatised’
• Airbus backlog of 8,720, Boeing 5,600

The head of Saudi low-cost carrier Flyadeal has warned that deliveries of in-demand commercial jets to the aviation industry will be severely constrained until the end of the decade.

Flyadeal CEO Steven Greenway told AGBI that despite having eight Airbus A320 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2025, the airline is planning on receiving only five. 

This highlights a growing disconnect between order books and reality and compounds challenges for carriers seeking to expand.

“Supply chains in the aviation sector are going to be traumatised through the next three-to-five years,” Greenway said. “We can’t do long-term planning.”

His remarks echo frustrations voiced by other Gulf carriers, including Emirates Airlines and Flydubai, which have publicly flagged significant delays in the arrival of new aircraft – an issue now reshaping fleet strategies and growth forecasts.

Flyadeal, which was launched in 2018 as a unit of national flag-carrier Saudia, has aggressive expansion plans. It wants to increase its fleet from 38 to 98 aircraft over the next four years, accounting for retirements. 

It also plans to triple its route network from over 30 destinations to 100 by 2030.

In 2025, the airline confirmed an order of 51 A320-family aircraft, including A320neo variants.

Flyadeal/X

But the delivery picture across the industry is bleak. 

Airbus, which builds the A320, had a backlog of 8,720 aircraft in March, nearly 90 percent of which are narrowbody jets like the A320 and A220, according to Forecast International. 

Boeing’s order backlog stood at over 5,600 aircraft, valued at approximately $545 billion.

“What began as a post-pandemic recovery bottleneck has metastasised into a systemic constraint,” said Linus Bauer, managing director of Singapore-based aviation consultancy BAA & Partners. 

“It’s reshaping delivery timelines, cost structures and network strategies globally.”

Particularly disruptive to carriers operating A320neo aircraft has been the ongoing impact of Pratt & Whitney’s 2023 GTF engine recall, which has grounded numerous aircraft worldwide due to potential defects in metal components. 

A shortage of critical materials – like titanium and semiconductors – along with global inflation, logistics bottlenecks, staff shortages and geopolitical uncertainty, has only deepened the crisis.

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Bauer estimates that between 2022 and 2024, the industry has lost up to $50 billion in potential revenue due to grounded aircraft and delayed capacity expansion. 

For low-cost carriers, he noted, operational inefficiencies can lead to a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in cost per seat.

The effects are being felt across the Gulf. Emirates chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum and Flydubai CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith this week also acknowledged delivery delays for their upcoming aircraft, casting uncertainty over near-term growth plans.

“It has probably a three to four year run before we can see any really significant improvement,” said John Grant, a partner at Midas Aviation and AGBI columnist. 

“In some markets capacity is artificially constrained, pushing fares higher. In others, airlines are forced to hold onto older aircraft they had planned to retire or return to lessors.”