Energy Morgan Stanley expects Opec to rein in output By Reuters November 23, 2023 Morgan Stanley The bank expects oil demand growth to slow in 2024 to about 1.2 million bpd as tailwinds after the Covid-19 pandemic abate and Opec restrains supply Morgan Stanley says prices of each barrel of Brent crude are likely to be supported at a level in the mid-$80s as it expects producer group Opec to continue to restrain production and stabilise oil inventories broadly at present levels. Oil prices kept in a narrow range on Wednesday, with the market awaiting news on output cuts from the Opec+ producers’ group at the weekend. In a note on Tuesday, bank analysts said there was little room in the market for additional Opec oil, adding that they pegged the call-on-Opec in 2024 at 28.3 million barrels per day (bpd), flat for the fourth consecutive year. Tensions over quotas and cuts delay Opec+ meeting Saudi Arabia extends oil cuts to end of year US oil has got its groove back – now Opec has to react Bank analysts now assume Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary cuts further to the end of next year’s second quarter, with its production rising only gradually during the second half, but staying below its formal Opec quota of 10.5 million bpd in that period. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of Opec+ have already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day (bpd), or about five percent of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. “Although US production slows sharply, non-Opec supply is still likely to increase by 1.4 million bpd next year, enough to meet all global demand growth,” bank analysts said in Tuesday’s note. The bank expects oil demand growth to slow in 2024 to about 1.2 million bpd as tailwinds after the Covid-19 pandemic abate and economic growth stays muted, it added.
