Gulf aviation and politics intersect at 30,000 feet

• 238 jets ordered from Boeing
• ‘A statement of cooperation’
• Manufacturers struggle to comply

As headlines swirled around Qatar’s reported gifting of a private jet to President Donald Trump, the real political theatre last month unfolded in the skies above the Gulf. 

Within days of each other, regional carriers Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways revealed a combined 238-jet order from Boeing, the troubled US manufacturer, highlighting how aviation serves as a high-altitude instrument of diplomacy and economic strategy.

“Aviation is all-too-often seen as a high-profile statement of cooperation,” says John Grant, partner at Midas Aviation and columnist at AGBI.

The headline value of the aircraft orders surpassed $110 billion, but aviation consultancy Ishka estimates the real deal value is closer to $31.5 billion. Etihad alone has 94 aircraft on order – 53 from Boeing and 41 from Airbus – as it attempts to double its fleet by the end of the decade.

Pre-Trump, the main airlines in the Gulf – Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways and Flydubai – had a combined total of more than 500 aeroplanes on order from Boeing and Airbus. Almost half of that total has been added in light of the latest announcements, at a time when both manufacturers are struggling to get jets out of the door.

International Air Transport Association (Iata) director general Willie Walsh put the estimated aircraft backlog at more than 17,000, a sharp rise from the 10,000-11,000 pre-pandemic, with an implied wait time of 14 years.

In 2025, 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered. Although this would mark the highest level since 2018, it is almost 26 percent lower than year-ago estimates, he said at the Iata annual general meeting in New Delhi.

Various Gulf CEOs, from Emirates’ Tim Clark and Flydubai’s Ghaith Al Ghaith, to Etihad chief Antonoaldo Neves, have indicated that arrivals on the ground may materialise at any time over the next decade.

“If they jump the queue, then perhaps it could take a few years. If an existing order gets cancelled, which is unlikely, then they may be able to slip a few in earlier but that’s something you wouldn’t bank on given the market today,” Grant says.

Clark, an outspoken critic of Boeing, said this week he had been told Emirates could receive its first 777X any time between the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Deliveries of the 777X were due in 2020.

Steven Greenway, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s budget carrier Flyadeal spoke out about Airbus delays, branding them “inexcusable”. In April, the company announced an order for 10 A330neo long-haul planes.

“Transparency, to be frank, is lacking, and we’re getting agitated. How else can we plan? I mean it is just going beyond a joke now,” Greenway told Reuters.

Airbus delivered 51 aircraft in May, down 4 percent from the same month a year earlier.

The monthly total brings the European planemaker’s deliveries for the first five months of 2025 to approximately 243 jets, representing a 5 percent decline from the same period last year.

“These aircraft orders are not merely about fleet renewal – they’re long-horizon strategic chess moves,” says Linus Bauer, founder of consultancy BAA & Partners.

“Gulf carriers are reaffirming Boeing’s place in their dual-OEM [original equipment manufacturer] strategy, leveraging the political moment, and securing production slots well into the 2030s, when intercontinental traffic – especially across Asia-Europe-Africa corridors – is expected to surge once again.”

• Trump dismisses concerns over Qatari plane gift
• Etihad comfortable with Boeing deliveries as profit rises
• Made in Saudi? Deal for Boeing F-15 parts still on the runway

Qatar Airways CEO Badr Mohammed Al-Meer describes his airline’s latest Boeing deal – among the largest in the manufacturer’s history – as integral to its long-term fleet strategy through 2040.

The timing of these orders is as significant as their scale. Bauer notes a pattern of aviation deals closely mirroring diplomatic overtures. Earlier this month, the US announced a new trade agreement with the UK, coinciding with a $10 billion Boeing order from British-based IAG, owner of the country’s flagship carrier British Airways, among others.

“For Gulf nations, aligning aviation purchases with US political leadership offers soft power leverage,” says Bauer. “It ensures continued goodwill from Washington – crucial when regional tensions, including those involving Iran, Red Sea shipping, or Israel-Saudi relations, are delicately poised.”