Dubai private schools face major shortfall of places

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• Shortfall of 100,000 by 2031
• Enrolments to exceed 430,000
• Schools ‘face demand surge’

Dubai’s private school sector is staring at a shortfall of more than 100,000 places by the start of the 2031 academic year, as the industry struggles to keep pace with the emirate’s increasing population.

Under the Dubai 2040 Master Plan, the emirate’s population is forecast to reach 7.8 million by the end of the next decade, up from roughly 3.3 million today.

As a consequence, student enrolments are expected to exceed 430,000 by the 2031-32 academic year, up from the 360,000 attending classes in the current year, research from Colliers Middle East has found.

With current utilisation above 90 percent, Colliers thinks there will be a gap of more than 100,000 student places in private schools serving kindergarten to 12th grade — 18 year olds. This will be primarily driven by consistent population growth in Dubai, said Talha Maqsood, director for education in the Middle East and Africa at Colliers.

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The number of private schools in Dubai rose to 220 for the current academic year, up from 216 in the previous year, according to the emirate’s education watchdog, the Knowledge and Human Development Authority.

Maqsood said that, on average, four to five new schools open in the emirate each year.

“Dubai’s private schools will face a significant demand surge,” he said.

Dubai’s D33 Agenda, launched last year, aims to double the emirate’s GDP by 2033.

Dino Varkey, CEO of Gems Education, which runs 29 schools in Dubai, plus more than 30 others in the wider UAE and across the Middle East and North Africa, said: “The education ecosystem and the market as a whole requires more schools as quickly as we can build them.”

Gems, which also has schools in Asia, Europe and North America, plans to add up to 30,000 new seats in the UAE within the next three years.

Alan Williamson, CEO of Dubai-listed Taaleem, said the company’s British schools are currently operating at full capacity, with its broader curriculum portfolio operating between 84-90 percent.

Taaleem plans to open four new schools, providing an additional 7,800 places in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“We are incredibly optimistic about the future of the UAE’s education sector, bolstered by strong dynamics and a clear growth trajectory,” Williamson said.

The need for more schools means an even greater need for more teachers at a time when the sector globally is struggling to recruit into the profession.

Experts have told AGBI that there will be a requirement for up to 30,000 extra teaching staff over the next six years in the UAE, the majority being needed in kindergarten and primary education.