Wars have skewed effects on Middle East tourism

Unsplash+/Fellipe Ditadi

As major conflicts are being fought in Ukraine and the Middle East, the question arises: what is the effect of these wars on local and global tourism?

International tourism to countries directly impacted by war, such as Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon and Palestine, but also Jordan, has largely come to a standstill. From the onset of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, all international and national flights from and to Ukrainian airports have been cancelled.

Currently international airlines have also suspended flights to Lebanon and to Israel, although local carriers (namely, Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines and Israel’s El Al) are trying to maintain flight schedules as best they can.

Almost all international seminars and business trips – the so-called MICE market of meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions – have been cancelled in the affected countries.

Hotels record very few international overnight stays – except for media crews and non-governmental humanitarian organisations. Operating hotels in a war-affected country poses particular challenges: from the need to provide shelter from bombs, to providing food, to securing alternative sources of electricity supply during blackouts. 

Flights to destinations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but also to Asia, have recently been rerouted to avoid affected air space.

Certain travel patterns have shifted, with Russian holidaymakers opting for Egypt, Turkey, India and Thailand instead of western Europe – where they face various barriers to entry, such as an absence of direct flights and visa restrictions.

That said, the Covid-19 era was a much more significant overall disruptor for the hospitality sector than the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have so far proved.

For instance, hotel guests in the UAE dropped from 27 million to 14 million from 2019 to 2020. Hotel overnights plummeted from 85 million to 54 million during this period – a record drop. 

The main impact of conflict on hotel demand is that certain target markets disappear, while other market segments gain importance

However recovery since the crisis has been relatively consistent, with hotel overnights in 2022 peaking at 91 million, despite the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in the same year. The upward trend has endured in subsequent years, with Dubai alone contributing just over 17 million overnights in 2023.

A similar trajectory is observed in Turkey. Hotel guest arrivals declined drastically from 39 million to 13 million between 2019 and 2020. But by the end of 2022 hotel arrivals recovered significantly after the pandemic and were estimated at 47 million.

So, as the figures show, the two conflicts have had negligible impact on global tourism numbers thus far.

Some markets have even benefitted. In the case of the Ukraine war, Warsaw, Istanbul and especially Dubai have gained the most in terms of rising inward-visitors. Many Russians and Ukrainians have relocated to these cities. Russian tourist numbers globally are at an all-time high.

The main impact of conflict on hotel demand is that certain target markets disappear, while other market segments gain importance. 

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Hotels with more diverse guest segments, especially in terms of country of origin, are generally better placed to withstand shifting demand patterns. This is especially true for resorts, which often rely on tour operators who focus on one or only a few countries of origin to fill their rooms.

Overall, as was the case with Covid, the most immediate impact on tourism in general, and hotel occupancy in particular, has been caused by a reduction or elimination of flight connections.

If there are no, or significantly fewer, direct flights between a country of origin and a destination, the relevant hotel demand is reduced.

International hubs such as Dubai, Istanbul and Singapore, located in countries that are not involved in a conflict, and which are not imposing visa or transport sanctions, are generally not negatively affected or may even profit. 

The exception to this rule is if the conflict is too close for comfort. If one of the two conflicts escalates, there could be serious, longer-term repercussions for tourism. 

War means uncertainty. Tourism works best in a stable environment – so war is intrinsically detrimental for it.

Michael Widmann is the Vienna-based global CEO of the PKF hospitality group