Opinion Aviation Riyadh Air’s launch delay is a blow to Vision 2030 Expect scrutinised focus on the broader progress towards Saudi Arabia's grand plans By John Grant January 27, 2025, 3:52 PM Alamy via Reuters Riyadh Air launched its livery at the Dubai Air Show in 2023 but is now not expected to take flight until the end of 2025 In Saudi Arabia, the next few months were expected to be filled with energy and excitement as the world’s most eagerly anticipated airline, Riyadh Air, finalised plans for its launch. However, the pace of development has slowed in the last few months, and news earlier this month confirmed what aviation pundits had been thinking: the launch is delayed until at least the end of 2025. The delay may eventually be forgotten, but the immediate damage of not operating for at least six more months casts a shadow over the broader progress being made on the Vision 2030 initiative, specifically the aviation sector, tourism, and passenger traffic development. So, what is happening at Riyadh Air? Launching a new carrier is challenging at the best of times, especially when that airline decides to order brand new aircraft. Even more so when that order is placed with beleaguered, delay-blighted manufacturer Boeing. Most new airlines look to the lease market when launching. In normal times, there is a great choice of aircraft type. Lease rates may be slightly higher than outright purchasing, but at least the aircraft is already built and operational. However Riyadh Air wanted a new, state-of-the art and customised fleet. That decision may have been partly driven by vanity. Nevertheless, an order placed in March 2023 for delivery and operation in the first half of 2025 from an aircraft manufacturer embroiled in numerous production issues was always going to be high risk. For any airline startup, costs mount long before revenue begins to flow. Riyadh Air has been actively recruiting management, flight crews and cabin staff in preparation for a second-quarter 2025 launch. At the World Travel Market event in London last November, the airline made a splash with an impressive exhibition stand staffed by newly hired employees. It is likely this event alone cost hundreds of thousands of pounds. With the delay, however, the return on such investments may be diminished or even lost before commercial flights begin. Operational staff recruitment presents an even greater challenge. Achieving 300 million visitors annually would necessitate a near-threefold increase in capacity Having hired pilots and cabin crew, Riyadh Air now faces tough decisions: continue paying staff while they wait for operations to begin, or risk furloughing them. The latter could result in talent loss, as the aviation industry is experiencing a severe shortage of skilled personnel. Competing job offers will undoubtedly tempt Riyadh Air’s employees, making it critical for the leadership team to maintain morale and retain staff – nearly impossible tasks without a clear launch date. The launch delay will also place scrutinised focus on the broader progress towards the Vision 2030 target of 300 million visitors by the decade’s end. That initial target was already widely regarded within the aviation industry as impossible, and that was before the subsequent delays in the aviation supply chain. Tracking the growth in scheduled airline capacity to and from Saudi Arabia since 2010 highlights the scale of the original Vision 2030 target. Last year, total capacity reached approximately 123 million seats, representing an 11 percent increase compared with 2023 and a 23 percent rise on pre-pandemic levels in 2019. An ambitious year ahead for Gulf aviation Could Riyadh Air’s brand help Saudi Arabia take off? Riyadh Air secures unprecedented number of airport slots However, achieving 300 million visitors annually would require around 350 million seats per year, assuming an 85 percent load factor. This would necessitate a near-threefold increase in capacity over the next five years – an extremely challenging feat given the industry’s current state. While historical trends don’t always predict future outcomes, such explosive growth is unlikely under the current circumstances. Today’s global aviation challenges simply could not have been conceived of in any planning scenario five years ago. Therefore adjustments of all aviation-related 2030 targets would not be unreasonable given today’s backdrop. The critical question now becomes what are the new, realistic targets? John Grant is a partner at the UK consultancy Midas Aviation