BA drops Kuwait after 60 years… but why?

Alamy/Christine Osborne Pictures via Reuters

No airline likes to discontinue a route, particularly one that has been in operation for over 60 years. 

However, a fortnight ago British Airways (BA) made the decision to remove both Kuwait and Bahrain from its network. In a surprising reversal, Bahrain has since been reinstated in its schedules.

When an airline drops a route, especially a long-standing one, it usually indicates a commercial challenge, such as heightened competition. 

But in this case a unique combination of network factors has forced BA to make some tough decisions. Meanwhile, the sudden reversal to keep Bahrain suggests that something extraordinary has occurred. More on that later.

Problematic engines

Recent estimates suggest that up to 7 percent of the world’s airline fleets are grounded due to widespread engine issues, prompting global network restrictions.

Problems with Pratt & Whitney engines have particularly impacted Airbus operators and low-cost airlines.

Rolls-Royce Trent’s A350 engines have fallen short of manufacturer’s required standards, affecting BA and others, including Cathay Pacific, Virgin Atlantic, Malaysia Airlines and Etihad Airways. 

For BA, the aircraft shortage situation has been worsened by the need to ground aircraft for scheduled maintenance and cabin upgrades, including the A380, where its first-class cabins are being refurbished.

Unique realignment opportunity

Amid a perfect storm of long-haul aircraft availability challenges and rising profitability on its North Atlantic network, BA had little choice but to cut some destinations.

Kuwait and Bahrain quickly became focal points, as the table below illustrates.

While typical long-haul load factors on BA wide-bodied services have averaged more than 85 percent this year, the two Gulf routes have underperformed in terms of volume.

For both Bahrain and Kuwait, a high proportion of traffic carried by BA was destined for points beyond London Heathrow. This connection-focused demand likely explains the airline’s previous reluctance to drop these services.

In the case of Bahrain, the airline has carried more passengers to the US this year than to the UK itself. Similarly, 25 percent of Kuwait passengers were also destined for the US. 

In total BA is ‘giving away’ around 22,000 passengers a year to other airlines who will happily carry that traffic, including Saudi Arabia’s soon-to-be-launched Riyadh Air.

However from BA’s perspective, these 22,000 passengers represent less than 0.5 percent of total transatlantic capacity, which will have a negligible impact on its broader network. 

Why the Bahrain turnaround? 

The most likely reason for Bahrain’s reinstatement is cash incentives. BA is not averse to receiving ‘support’ to stay in markets in some parts of the world, such as the Caribbean. It’s an accepted part of the operation. 

For the Bahrain route to be saved, BA may have required financial guarantees from local stakeholders – perhaps the airport, tourist board, or even the government itself. 

Typically such support involves a minimum revenue guarantee. In this case, it could also include a costly guaranteed profit margin. 

Political considerations may also have played a role in the u-turn decision. Bahrain is a well-regarded partner and ally of the UK. 

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While BA is a commercial enterprise, it is still seen as Britain’s flag carrier and has previously responded to diplomatic pressures. Could this have influenced its decision to reinstate the route? Possibly. 

When combined with a performance guarantee, such diplomatic considerations may well have swayed BA’s change of heart.

Will the Kuwait route return?

It is highly unlikely that Kuwait will return to BA’s network in the near future. Historically, destinations that have lost BA long-haul services have often waited a decade or more for reinstatement, typically only after securing substantial marketing support guarantees. 

The loss of a long-standing flag carrier like BA is undoubtedly a significant blow for Kuwait. However, some of BA’s former passengers may shift to local carriers, providing a welcome boost to their traffic. 

Managing the PR fallout and addressing potential negative market perceptions could pose a challenge for BA.

Nonetheless the airline has framed the decision as primarily operational, and its absence in Kuwait will be felt from April 2025 – unless Kuwait follows Bahrain’s lead and takes proactive steps to secure the service's return.

John Grant is partner at UK consultancy Midas Aviation