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Regional airlines will remain fluid in the Israel-Iran conflict

Current events are unlikely to cause significant disruption in countries with large domestic markets

John Grant
By John Grant
Airlines in Israel-Iran conflict. Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport. All major international airlines have suspended flights to Israel Alamy via Reuters
Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport. All major international airlines have suspended flights to Israel

The Iran-Israel conflict has had an immediate and huge impact on airlines in the region. For now, the situation is fluid but, rest assured, no airline or regulator will place any passenger or aircraft at risk during these difficult times.

What is actually happening in terms of flights and what does this mean for the aviation sector?

Within the region, several routes and services are now affected. Many airlines are cancelling services at short notice, while routings for operational services are being dramatically adjusted. 

For instance, the traditional routing from the Middle East to Europe takes a northerly route towards Kuwait, tracks through Iraq into Syria, across Turkey and into Europe.

Today, as the latest Flightradar tracker shows, all those services are operating in an orderly line across Saudi air space before heading through Egypt. Journey times are broadly similar but the overflight costs of using Saudi airspace will be painful for some of those carriers.

Nonetheless, flights from the major markets in the Middle East are operating as scheduled, which is good news. But what of the longer-term picture?

Currently all major international airlines have suspended services to Tel Aviv in Israel. In many cases, they have announced that they will not return before the end of October and beyond. American Airlines will not be back before March 2025 and Delta Air Lines has cancelled all flights to the end of the year.

European carriers may be more flexible in their operations and could restart services with a few weeks’ notice.

Unfortunately, some airports within the Middle East are caught up in the disruption, with Jordan’s capital Amman notably impacted. Airlines such as Turkish, FlyDubai and Qatar Airways have cancelled services today. 

However the Dubai carrier Emirates sent off a whole wave of morning departures to Europe today, as scheduled, re-routing through Saudi Arabia rather than Iraq. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad continues to operate as normal, saying that it will make daily judgment calls for each affected route.

For the moment, current events are unlikely to cause significant disruption in countries with large domestic markets. Services in Saudi Arabia are operating as near to normal as they ever do. In Iran, it appears that some services are operating, albeit at levels that are no more irregular and unreliable than usual.

So, things are fluid within the aviation industry. Every day brings operational challenges for airlines, and they are well versed in both adjusting routings and adjusting schedules, and always making decisions based on a safety-first approach to their business. 

In some cases, flights may take 20 or 30 minutes longer, and air traffic controllers in Saudi Arabia and Egypt may be working harder than they normally do. However, no industry and its supply is as resilient as the aviation sector. 

If you can, relax, and rest assured that flying today in the region is no riskier than it was last week or last month.

John Grant is partner at UK consultancy Midas Aviation

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