Opinion Agriculture Food is the hidden frontier in the Middle East conflict The impact of conflict on food production and trade will be felt around the world By Martin Keulertz October 11, 2024, 9:33 AM Sharif Karim/Reuters A farmer harvests wheat in Houla village, southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government estimates that the war in the south will affect 30% of agricultural output for years to come While the world awaits Israel’s response to the Iranian missile attack on October 1, the stakes could not be higher across the Mena region. Thus far, most analysis has focused on military capabilities. However, the related implications for food insecurity must not be overlooked. Agricultural production faces natural regional limitations given the scarcity of fertile land and water resources. As a result, almost all countries are food net-importers. The Gulf countries, Jordan, Yemen, Palestine, Israel, and Lebanon, import more than 85 percent of their cereals, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. Of course, many of these countries produce their own fruit and vegetables and may even be self-sufficient in foods like tomatoes or apples. However, this kind of produce lacks the necessary carbohydrates or proteins to nourish their populations. Only Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Egypt meet between 40 to 60 percent of their food needs domestically. These countries have a lower dependency on world food markets. If conflict spreads, their fertile lands may become even more of an asset. Regional effects Already, the agricultural sectors in Israel and Lebanon have been profoundly affected by the conflict over the past year. Northern Israel is a major fruit producer. South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley are two of the country’s major food bowls, especially for vegetable production. The Lebanese government estimates that the war in the south will affect 30 percent of agricultural output for several years to come. If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, essential global and regional food trade arteries will be affected. This will especially impact Arab Gulf ports such as Shuwaikh in Kuwait, Mina Salman in Bahrain, Hamad Port in Qatar, Jebel Ali in Dubai, and King Abdul Aziz Port in Dammam in Saudi Arabia. The harshest effects of any war in the region will land on the region’s poor All the aforementioned ports are located inside the Strait of Hormuz, which is a choke point in geopolitical affairs. Given the threat posed by Houthi rebels in Yemen, the entire Red Sea and Suez Canal route could be further affected. Shipping companies may choose to increase traffic around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa to reach European markets. Such a move would further impact Egypt’s declining Suez Canal revenues. Only Oman’s Salalah Port provides an option outside the Arab Gulf and Red Sea routes. However, freight insurance will likely increase, increasing GCC consumer costs over time. Given the region’s strong airport infrastructure, food can also be flown into the GCC countries from around the world. Some of the costs may be absorbed by food and beverage businesses, but others may be passed onto consumers. The time is right for the GCC to stockpile grain Conflict will severely disrupt Middle East logistics Lebanon conflict will only exacerbate existing economic crisis However, previous crises, such as in Qatar in 2016 or during the Covid pandemic, have shown that food shortages are usually short-lived in the Mena region. Global food supply chains are, after all, very robust and resilient. The 2024 harvest season in the Global North has been ample. Thus, there is enough food available to be traded. Moreover, countries across the region have learned their lessons from the food crises in 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2022, and have ramped up grain storage for at least three months. Global impact It is more likely that the outcome of a major Mena military confrontation will be felt globally in the food supply chain. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the cost of fertilisers will also increase, highlighting again the dependency of global agriculture on fossil fuels, especially in the Global South. Similarly, if natural gas prices skyrocket again, consumers worldwide will be paying a premium for vegetables grown in greenhouses during the winter months. This may fuel further discontent among consumers, who have already lived through a two-year cost-of-living crisis. A major war in the Mena region could prolong such a crisis. The harshest effects of any war in the region will land on the region’s poor, such as refugees or internally displaced people. These social groups will require urgent regional and international aid to prevent countries from collapsing. A prolonged military confrontation could be very serious for some given the already fragile state of the global economy. Martin Keulertz is a lecturer in environmental management at the University of the West of England, Bristol