Oil & Gas IEA’s hard line on oil glut clashes with Opec forecast By Eva Levesque March 13, 2025, 7:33 PM Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, arriving at a summit in Paris. Earlier this week he said there is a need for upstream investments in oil and gas to avoid shortfalls IEA says tariffs will affect demand Forecasts growth of 1 million bpd Opec remains more confident The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said US tariffs will contribute to a decline in global oil demand growth this year, once again contrasting with Opec’s more optimistic forecast. In a monthly report published on Thursday the IEA forecast that oil demand would grow by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down 70,000 bpd from its February prediction. The Paris watchdog cited deteriorating macroeconomic conditions due to trade tensions. “New US tariffs, combined with escalating retaliatory measures, tilted macro risks to the downside,” the IEA said. Asian countries will account for almost 60 percent of the growth, with the lead taken by China, where the need for petrochemical feedstock will take up all of the growth. The IEA’s forecast contrasts with Opec‘s outlook, which remains confident in relatively strong demand and in plans to increase output. On Wednesday the organisation, led by Saudi Arabia, kept its forecast for demand growth at 1.4 million bpd this year, pointing to air travel and transport as a driver. Brazil joins Opec+ oil producers’ group Oil set for biggest weekly drop since October IEA and Opec agree on one thing: 2024 demand was down The IEA expects a surplus of 600,000 bpd, which could rise by another 400,000 bpd if Opec+ countries extend reversing output cuts beyond April “without reining in supply from members currently overproducing,” it said. Opec+ production climbed 360,000 bpd in February, led by a jump in Kazakhstan, which is lagging in its adherence to output quotas. The disparity in forecasts between the IEA and Opec comes amid increasing calls for investments in oil production. Speaking at an annual energy conference in Houston this week, the IEA’s head Fatih Birol said there was a need for upstream investments in oil and gas to avoid future supply shortfalls. Brent traded at $70.65 a barrel at 14.40 on Thursday. WTI traded at $67.36 a barrel, both losing about 0.5 percent.
