Skip to content Skip to Search
Skip navigation

Opec trims oil demand outlook again

By Eva Levesque
Opec says worldwide oil demand is going to fall this year and next Alamy via Reuters
Opec says worldwide oil demand is going to fall this year and next
  • Forecast down to 2 million bpd
  • 2025 prediction also revised
  • Oil group optimistic over economy

Opec has reduced its oil demand forecast for 2024 for the second consecutive time, but it remains optimistic despite bearish markets.

The oil producers group said on Tuesday that it was revising down world oil demand by 80,000 barrels per day to about 2 million bpd “reflecting data received so far this year”.

It also trimmed the forecast for 2025 by 40,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd.

Person, Electronics, Mobile Phone

Newsletter
Get the Best of AGBI delivered straight to your inbox every week

In August Opec reduced its bullish forecast for oil this year by 135,000 bpd to 2.1 million bpd.

The organisation slightly upped its forecast for world economic growth to 3 percent, but kept its prediction for 2025 unchanged at 2.9 percent.

Eight members of Opec+, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia, agreed last Thursday to delay unwinding their voluntary output cuts until December 1. The block, made up of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is holding back 5.86 million bpd. 

It was planning to gradually hike production by 180,000 bpd in October and by 540,000 by the end of the year. It would continue in this vein until it had completely unwound 2.2 million bpd of voluntary curbs over the next 12 months.

Opec's decision failed to increase oil prices however, as market sentiment remains on a downward trend.

Brent traded nearly 1 percent down at $71.21 at 16:43 GST on Tuesday, while WTI traded at $68.11.

Crude prices have lost 22 percent in one year, wiping gains from the last 12 months over uncertainties about China’s slowing oil demand, expectations of the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, and the US presidential elections.

“Looking ahead, China’s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,” Opec said in its monthly report. 

In 2024 it projects Chinese oil demand to grow to an average of 17 million bpd. 

“However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward,” it said.

Opec’s outlooks vastly differ from other, much more pessimistic forecasts about the future of oil demand.

The International Energy Agency expects it to rise by only 1 million bpd this year and to level off near 106 million bpd towards 2030.

Latest articles

Gulf airlines, Gulf airlines conflict, Gulf conflict risk, Gulf flights cancelled rerouted

Conflict risk leads Gulf airlines to cancel regional routes

Gulf airlines are among airlines that have cancelled and rerouted flights across the Middle East as the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates. They are avoiding Iranian airspace and many have cancelled routes entirely following a major missile attack by Iran against Israel on Tuesday. Immediately after the attacks about 80 flights operated by carriers […]

Taaleem's schools offer 'exclusive educational experiences' including access to high-tech equipment profits

Dubai school operator Taaleem increases profit by 55%

Dubai school operator Taaleem has reported revenue of AED945.2 million ($257.3 million) for its 2023-24 financial year – a 15.5 percent year-on-year increase. More student enrolments and the opening of new schools helped Taaleem to increase net profit before tax by 55 percent, to AED182 million, in the financial year ending August. Taaleem’s shares were […]

Shein IPO

Mubadala-backed Shein courts investors before London IPO

Chinese fashion retailer Shein, which is backed by the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, is courting European investors before an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange. Shein is due to hold informal meetings to answer questions and test the investment appetite of major investors in the coming weeks, before its planned IPO […]

Workers stand on a scaffold in Dubai. Building a high rise in the UAE can be as much as two thirds cheaper than in other major cities

Apartments in UAE among cheapest to build in the world

Building a standard residential high-rise in Dubai or Abu Dhabi is up to two-thirds cheaper than in other major global cities, thanks to land, labour and raw materials all costing much less. Land is up to three times cheaper in the UAE compared with the prices paid in New York, London, Hong Kong and Singapore […]