Energy

Saudi Arabia signs IAEA protocol as nuclear plans advance

August 9, 2024

The Saudi ambassador to Slovenia, Abdullah bin Khaled Toula (right), hands Saudi Arabia’s acceptance of the IAEA's privileges and immunities agreement to its director, Rafael Grossi, at the agency’s headquarters in Vienna

Inspection agreement outstanding
Small research reactor nearly ready
Gulf coast power plant open to bids

Saudi Arabia has inched closer to obtaining US help to develop a nuclear energy programme by signing a protocol that ensures the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has legal rights to operate inside the kingdom.

However an agreement to the inspection of nuclear facilities by the Vienna-based supervisory body, including a protocol that would allow snap visits, remains outstanding.

“As nuclear activities are poised to grow in Saudi Arabia, facilitating the work of IAEA staff as they carry out duties is key,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi posted on X, formerly Twitter, on August 7.

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“Today, Saudi Arabia deposited ‘Instrument of Acceptance for the Agreement on the Privileges and Immunities of the IAEA’, providing protection to our staff,” Grossi wrote.

Saudi plans for a first civil nuclear facility remain bogged down in controversy and delay because of the government’s preference for US reactor technology and insistence on enriching its own uranium rather than buying from the international market.

Saudi Arabia nuclear plans — The UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant. Saudi Arabia is seeking to develop its own nuclear energy programme with US help

The issue has become more pressing because a small research reactor near Riyadh could come online soon. A bigger plan to build a commercial nuclear power plant at Duwaiheen on the Gulf coast is currently open to bids – but not from preferred supplier, Centrus Energy, without a US agreement in place.

The US administration has said that it is willing to work with Riyadh for the sake of its broader goal of securing a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal, despite concerns that Saudi Arabia is trying to create space to develop nuclear weapons.

This week’s agreement “marks a notable advance in Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept oversight of its budding nuclear programme,” Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in a note.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has been clear that the kingdom will seek to match Iran if it develops nuclear weapons capacity. But a US defence pact under discussion could help to allay Riyadh’s concerns about Iran obtaining the bomb.

US officials have also offered to oversee any Saudi facilities for reprocessing uranium inside the kingdom if they insist on that route.

But Peter Wells, a geologist and CEO of green hydrogen supplier LH2 Europe, said information Saudi Arabia provided for the first time for the IAEA’s annual Red Book uranium report published in 2023 showed only small amounts of “inferred deposits”.

If exploration companies do not find more uranium, Saudi Arabia is likely to be forced to buy fuel from abroad. But no supplier will do so without the government signing up to all the IAEA inspection protocols.

A further incentive for Washington to come to terms with Riyadh is the US desire to pull the kingdom away from US economic rival China, which is Saudi Arabia’s major trade partner and the largest recipient of its crude oil sales.

The crown prince has said publicly he will switch to buying arms from China if the US cannot offer a security pact that protects the country, presumably from adversaries such as Iran’s regional allies.

“Saudi Arabia is integrating more and more with China and now balancing this with the US, so these issues are getting very tricky,” said Ted Karasik, a Washington-based defence analyst.