Economy Turkey’s economic rebound softened by soaring imports By William Sellars February 28, 2025, 3:40 PM Reuters/Umit Bektas A container vessel at Ambarli Port in Istanbul, Turkey. Import growth outpaced exports growth in January leaving a $7.5bn trade shortfall GDP rises by 3% in Q4 2024 January imports outpace exports Construction leads growth Turkey’s economy recovered in the fourth quarter of 2024 after two consecutive quarters of contraction. However, imports soared in January, boding ill for the trade balance, according to data released by state statistics agency Turkstat. Gross domestic product expanded 3 percent in three months to December 31, helping – when combined with expansion in the first quarter – the country post full-year GDP growth of 3.2 percent, led by the construction industry. It expanded 9.3 percent in 2024. But Turkey’s 2025 trade balance got off to a bad start in January, with import growth outpacing exports growth by 5 percentage points, leaving a $7.5 billion trade shortfall. “When we look at the import data, the composition of it is also very bad,” said Filiz Eryılmaz, an associate professor of economics at Uludağ University. “Consumer goods imports are very strong, but we do not see an increase in investment or intermediary goods supporting production.” Overall, imports rose 10 percent year on year. Consumer goods imports surged 20 percent while the share of capital goods declined. This calls into question the government’s policy of trying to rein in domestic demand, and at the same time boost domestic production and exports. Exports grew 5 percent in January, led by manufactured goods, with agriculture and mining lagging. Confidence builds in Turkish real economy Turkish industrial capacity use falls again Tech incubator aims to refresh Turkish farming “These results will increase questioning in the markets,” says Eryılmaz. “The market was trying to understand whether there were problems with the programme, hitches somewhere, or whether it was periodical.” Overall last year, some sectors of the economy performed poorly, according to the Turkstat data. Industry only grew by 0.5 percent. Many sectors – from services, real estate and education to administration, health and social services – grew at less than the national 3.2 percent target.
