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IMF cuts Saudi growth forecast on lower oil production

Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura facility. Saudi Arabia's GDP is forecast by the IMF to grow by 3.3% this year Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura facility. Saudi Arabia's GDP is forecast by the IMF to grow by 3.3% this year

The International Monetary Fund has cut its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth this year following the extension of Opec+ production cuts.

The IMF now expects Saudi GDP to increase by 3.3 percent in 2025, down from the 4.6 percent it forecast last October.

The 2024 growth estimate has been revised to 1.4 percent in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update.

Growth in 2026 is now projected at 4.1 percent, down 0.3 points on the previous forecast.

Last month Opec+ agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2026, from the end of 2025.

Saudi Arabia economy

The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts will start in April 2025 with monthly increases of 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations. It will last 18 months until September 2026.

The IMF expects GDP growth of 3.6 percent this year in the wider Middle East and Central Asia region – down from the 3.9 percent it forecast in October 2024.

Saudi Arabia has approved its 2025 budget, which estimates total revenues at SAR1.18 trillion ($314 billion) and expenditures at SAR1.28 trillion – resulting in a fiscal deficit of SAR101 billion ($26.9 billion).

The finance ministry said this would represent 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, which is lower than the 3 percent of GDP in a recently revised estimate for 2024. 

According to the IMF, the risk of renewed inflationary pressures may prompt central banks to raise policy rates and intensify monetary policy divergence. Higher-for-even-longer interest rates could worsen fiscal, financial and external risks, it said.

In addition to risks from economic policy shifts, geopolitical tensions could intensify, leading to renewed spikes in commodity prices.

The IMF said the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could worsen, directly affecting trade routes and food and energy prices.

The projections assume that current policies were in place at the time of publication on January 17.