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Oman’s non-oil trade drives GDP growth in first quarter

Preparing fruit for sale in Nizwa, Oman. The country's agriculture and fishing sector grew 3.2 percent in Q1 Pexels/Deen Sally
Preparing fruit for sale in Nizwa, Oman. The country's agriculture and fishing sector grew 3.2 percent in Q1
  • Oman GDP up 0.8% in Q1
  • Non-oil growth of 4%
  • Oil and gas declined

Non-oil activity in Oman increased by almost 4 percent in the first quarter of the year, helping to prop up a decline in revenues from the sultanate’s energy sector.

Oman’s GDP for the first three months of 2024 was up marginally by 0.8 percent year on year to OMR10.45 billion ($27 billion), according to data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information.

The non-oil sector contributed OMR7 billion to quarterly revenues.

The report revealed that the hydrocarbons sector, combining both crude oil and natural gas, dropped in value by 3.8 percent from OMR3.6 billion to OMR3.5 billion in the first quarter of the year.

Crude oil experienced a 4.4 percent drop, from OMR3.14 billion to OMR2.99 billion, and natural gas marginally decreased by 0.1 percent, from OMR525 million to OMR524.4million.

Oman’s debt/GDP ratio is projected to fall to 32 percent of GDP by the end of 2024 through to 2025, from 36 percent in 2023. 

The sultanate’s budget surplus is projected to shrink from 3.2 percent in 2023 to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2024 and nearly 1 percent in 2025, assuming Brent crude oil prices of $80 and $70 per barrel, respectively. Brent oil was priced at $83 on Monday morning. 

Ratings agency Fitch expects Opec+ to unwind production quotas from the fourth quarter of 2024, which will mitigate part of Oman’s revenue loss from lower oil prices.

Overall hydrocarbon revenue is forecast to drop by 11 percent next year.

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