China ‘unlikely to overthrow Boeing-Airbus duopoly’

• IATA chief dismisses Chinese threat
• ‘Decades away’ from global challenge
• Domestic market ‘big enough’

China’s state-owned planemaker, Comac (Commercial Aircraft Corp of China), is decades away from breaking up the global dominance of Boeing and Airbus, according to the head of the world’s largest airline trade association.

The result will be that Gulf Arab carriers such as Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways have little choice but to stomach delays in the delivery of their orders.

Willie Walsh, the former CEO of British Airways and now head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 340 airlines around the world, told AGBI while on a visit to Dubai: “Comac is a 20-year issue.”

Last month, Airbus reported an order backlog of 8,720 jets, while Boeing held 6,319 unfulfilled orders, according to data from Forecast International.

Emirates, the Dubai-based airline that is the world’s third largest carrier by scheduled revenue passenger-kilometres flown, has more than 300 aircraft on order from both Boeing and Airbus. 

It has been particularly critical of the US planemaker because of delays in the delivery of its 777X wide-body aircraft.

Last year, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Civil Aviation signed an initial deal with Comac to explore the possibility of aircraft assembly in the kingdom. 

The country is starting a new airline this year called Riyadh Air, with a mix of Boeing and Airbus planes.

IATA

Comac’s chairman, Dongfeng He, has previously said Comac could supply aircraft from China to the Middle East, Turkey, North Africa and Central Asia.

The Chinese aircraft manufacturer’s most high-profile plane, the C919 narrow-body jet, with a range of 5,500 kilometres, entered domestic passenger service in 2023 but is not yet certified outside China. 

Comac’s smaller ARJ21 regional jet has operated in Southeast Asia since 2016.

The value of the Chinese aviation services market grew to $23 billion last year, Airbus said in December, driven by rising domestic middle-class demand for air travel and aggressive fleet expansion by Chinese carriers. 

China is now the second-largest aviation market in the world after the US.

Walsh said there was “huge growth in China”, and its domestic market was big enough for Comac.

However, the onset of a global trade war between the US and China could complicate Comac’s growth strategy, he said.

This week, several Chinese airlines reportedly canceled Boeing aircraft orders. But Comac relies heavily on US-made components for its aircraft. 

The C919 is powered by Leap-1C engines from Ohio-based GE Aerospace through GE’s partnership with CFM International, a Franco-American aircraft engine manufacturer.

“It will be interesting to see how that plays out,” Walsh said.