Analysis Renewable Energy Trump’s climate agenda ‘may push UAE investors away from US’ By Eva Levesque February 2, 2025, 9:51 AM Bob Daemmrich/Zuma Wire/Alamy Live News via Reuters Connect Donald Trump delivers a speech at an oil drilling rig in Texas. He said last week that the US is 'not going to do the wind thing' Plug pulled on offshore wind US renewables now uncertain More costs and delays Masdar and the UAE’s other renewable energy companies may need to rethink their US investments now that President Donald Trump has pulled the plug on new offshore wind projects, industry watchers have warned. “We’re not going to do the wind thing. Big, ugly windmills. They ruin your neighbourhood,” Trump said on his return to the Oval Office last month. He claimed that wind was the most expensive form of energy “you can have, by far” – and the flurry of executive orders Trump issued to reverse his predecessor’s climate agenda included a temporary withdrawal of offshore wind leasing on the US continental shelf. Trump also announced a pause on disbursement of funds through the Inflation Reduction Act and a freeze of Department of Energy spending programmes. Rachel Ziemba of Ziemba Insights in New York told AGBI the changes on Inflation Reduction Act credits and spending will force investors, including those from the Gulf, to factor in more legal costs and delays when evaluating US projects. She said she believed this “might offset any positive benefits” and Trump’s move may deter future investment until Congress makes clear which incentives will continue. “Masdar will be included in this. Its JV company will be assessing where the best opportunities are,” Ziemba said. Other UAE investors such as Masdar’s part-owner Adnoc may do the same, she said. Masdar has a global target of reaching 100GW of renewables by 2030, and had previously identified the US as the largest source of growth. It has already invested about $1 billion in the US and has been developing more than 12GW of wind, solar and battery storage projects in California, Texas and New York. In January 2023 Emirati and American officials announced a $20 billion investment in US clean energy projects, led by Masdar and a consortium of US private investors. Last October Masdar acquired a 50 percent stake in Terra-Gen Power Holdings II, one of the largest independent renewable power producers in the US. What’s holding up wind power Ed Crooks, senior vice-president at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said the main constraint on wind power “is not leasing but project economics, which could be affected by new tariffs”. After a decade of growth, wind projects have suffered cost increases of between 40 and 60 percent, according to Wood Mackenzie. Offshore wind has been struggling elsewhere around the world. Some projects have been shelved and delayed, while other more price-competitive energy sources, including solar and onshore wind, have gone ahead. However, this may also change. “It’s likely that some of the same coalition that tried to block offshore wind will start to mobilise against solar and onshore wind, which have a comparative price advantage,” Ziemba said. An industry insider who did not want to be named told AGBI that a lack of stable policy has made US renewables uncertain. “How can you plan long-term investments in renewables when the business environment changes every four years? It is impossible,” the person said. “Tomorrow, if the new president is a Republican, the situation may continue or not; it is a total mess.” Masdar buys Greece’s biggest investor in renewables Abu Dhabi seeks developer for new wind power project Masdar acquires 49% stake in UK’s offshore wind farms Trump has put more than $300 billion of potential federal green infrastructure funding at risk, according to the Financial Times. However, another industry observer said he did not think Masdar would make a public spectacle of exiting any US investments, because of its government ownership. “The UAE is ‘Little Sparta’ for the White House, a national security ally in the Middle East the president will not publicly embarrass,” the observer said. Masdar and other UAE investors may turn their attention to different energy projects including hydrogen, which still has popular support, according to analysts. Last September Adnoc proposed acquiring a 35 percent stake in ExxonMobil’s Baytown Texas low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia production facility. Ziemba said there was an inconsistency between Trump’s desire for more power in the US to support its AI ambitions and for more investment from abroad – and his dislike of renewable energy. Justin Alexander, from the US consultancy Khalij Economics, said Gulf sovereign investment is likely to continue, but “without the administration’s active support, the scale of GCC investment in US renewables may be less than it otherwise would have been”. Masdar declined to comment. Adnoc did not respond to a request for comment.