Analysis Oil & Gas US energy push bodes well for GCC’s LNG interests By Eva Levesque March 5, 2025, 8:05 AM Reuters/Leah Millis President Donald Trump, pictured touring an LNG facility in Louisiana in 2019, has lifted a moratorium on LNG export permits US aims to be lead exporter Low US costs attract Gulf investors LNG demand predicted to soar Since his return to the Oval Office, Donald Trump has moved aggressively to unleash a new era for the American energy sector. Last month, he established a National Energy Dominance Council, tasked with expediting projects by cutting red tape and promoting private-sector investment. He has also lifted a moratorium on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits, aiming to position the US as a leading exporter. LNG is where GCC investors, who already have significant US gas interests, may invest further, according to analysts. Worldwide, demand for the relatively clean-burning fuel will rise by around 60 percent by 2040, according to Shell. Meanwhile Russia, a major exporter, is likely to be excluded for the foreseeable future. The US is not just the world’s largest exporter, having stepped into the European market, but it is also the most efficient producer. Gulf LNG producers – Qatar, Oman and the UAE – principally export to the Far East. Saudi Arabia, Opec+’s largest oil producer, is short of gas and may import LNG from the US. For the moment it is the European market, where spot LNG prices are dramatically higher, which is exciting both US exporters and GCC investors. The US benchmark Henry Hub spot price is currently $4 per million British thermal units (MMbtu), while the TTF benchmark in Europe has typically been north of $14 per MMbtu. “Saudi Arabia has no domestic LNG, and Abu Dhabi has only a modest amount, so US investments make sense to diversify their energy market exposure,” says Justin Alexander, director at Khalij Economics, a consultancy. Rachel Ziemba of Ziemba Insights, an advisory company in New York, believes GCC companies will invest in the US given pressure from President Trump and the risk of tariffs. “GCC producers, except Qatar, don’t have sufficient gas and production costs are relatively affordable in the US,” Ziemba says. Port Arthur LNGAn impression of the planned Port Arthur LNG export terminal in Texas GCC investors may also benefit from the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) and streamlined environmental reviews that the Trump administration has proposed. Gulf states already have significant US LNG interests. Qatar holds a 70 percent stake in the Golden Pass LNG Terminal in Texas. The terminal was initially planned to import Qatari LNG, but it pivoted to exports as the US became self-sufficient in gas. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) moved its US assets to a new unit XRG last month, which among other objectives aims to build an international gas portfolio to meet the increase in LNG demand. Adnoc/XRG already owns assets in NextDecade’s LNG plant, also in Texas, and wants to take over a fourth processing unit. For its part, Saudi Aramco has invested $500 million in US-based MidOcean Energy to develop its LNG business, a strategic priority. Aramco is also in talks to invest 25 percent in the expansion of Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project in Texas and has been negotiating with Tellurian for a potential stake in the Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana. Qatar says Trump’s LNG export plan poses ‘no threat’ The Riyadh summit will shape global energy geopolitics Algeria and Egypt lead Arab LNG export decline The company could also acquire volumes from Port Arthur LNG’s second phase and is exploring a long-term gas purchase agreement with NextDecade for its Rio Grande facility. The only cloud is that US LNG production could face rising costs of production and construction of terminals due to Trump’s tariffs on steel imports and Chinese products. But that is unlikely to deter the likes of Saudi Arabia, which needs more gas as it phases out oil from electricity generation. “Demand for LNG is rising. If they [the Saudis] have a chance to invest in LNG in the US, that would be of strategic interest because they’re already planning to import it,” says Yousef Alshammari, president of the London College of Energy Economics. “LNG now is more important for Saudi Arabia than oil,” says Alshammari.
