Gulf aluminium supplies to US to continue despite tariffs

Alamy

• Gulf supplies 16% of US aluminium
• UAE and Bahrain largest suppliers
• US consumers to pay price

Short-term supplies of aluminium from the Gulf to the US are set to continue despite new tariffs planned by President Trump, according to experts.

The new US president announced tariffs of 25 percent on all supplies of aluminium into the US on Sunday.

In 2024 the Gulf made up over 16 percent of US aluminium imports.

The UAE exported 347,000 tonnes of aluminium to the US in 2024, Bahrain sent 201,000 and Oman sent 68,000. Qatar and Saudi Arabia sent 44,000 and 18,000 tonnes respectively. 

These numbers are dwarfed by the 3.15 million Canada sent in 2024.

Ross Strachan, principal analyst of aluminium at CRU, said: “If all countries are tariffed at the same rate, as appears likely, then volumes from the Gulf are not likely to be hugely affected by this development.”

He added, however, that in the medium term these tariffs could harm US demand by raising prices for consumers and encouraging the restart of domestic production.

The Gulf’s ready supply of energy will help it keep a competitive edge despite the tariffs, according to Ralf Wiegert, head of Middle East and North Africa economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“From a GCC point of view, the tariffs on steel [and] aluminium are a nuisance, but surely not a show-stopper for the domestic industry given that GCC companies in steel and aluminium enjoy a strong competitive advantage with low energy costs in the region,” Weigart said.

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President Trump also announced tariffs on steel imports at the weekend.

For Andy Farida, base metals research analyst for aluminium at London-based Fastmarkets, the pain of the blanket aluminium tariffs is primarily going to be felt by US consumers.

He said: “It merely makes both the Gulf and Canadian aluminium more expensive to be imported into the US.

“US consumers are set to lose and as Trump alluded last week he felt that it is okay for thems to feel the pinch for a while.”

Gulf aluminium producers’ resilience is reflected in the negligible impact of tariffs on share prices. Aluminium Bahrain, for example, closed Monday trading at 1.032 BHD, up 0.19 percent on the previous day.